If financial experts like Ray Dalio are to be believed, the US economy is headed for a downward spiral. In fact, according to the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, there is a 40 percent chance of a recession before the year 2020.
When asked about the topic, Dalio told a reporter for CNBC that recessions are inevitable; the only question is when. In another interview, Dalio stated that he thinks there is a likely chance of a recession before the next election.
Signs That the World Is Heading Toward a Recession
There are indicators that the US may be headed toward a recession. In August, the yield on a 10-year Treasury note fell below the two-year rate for a brief period of time. This is a phenomenon that has reliably indicated an economic recession in the past.
Continuing tension between the United States and China over trade is affecting investment decisions among businesses around the world. Major players in the world economy, including Germany and Singapore, reported second-quarter shrinkage in their economy.
Current Events and Their Impact on the Economy
Two of the biggest current events this year have been the impeachment of President Donald J. Trump and trade wars with China. Both of these events could impact the economy.
Trade, it seems, is the political issue that consumers are concerned about the most. Trade is what hits consumers in their wallets. When trade is affected or when a recession seems imminent, investors turn to financial vehicles like a gold IRA. Usually, a gold IRA smooths out risk over the long-term because gold usually moves in the opposite direction of paper assets. If the dollar is weak, gold is strong.
Impeachment headlines may be a source of anxiety for many people concerned about the stability of the US government. However, many polls indicated that Americans still feel good about their financial situation. According to a University of Michigan survey, 54 percent of those surveyed said that their finances had recently improved.
What Happens to the Economy If Trump Is Removed from Office?
The likelihood of President Trump being impeached and removed from office is doubtful. It would require a major coup by Republicans in the Senate. However, it is a good mental exercise.
First, Vice President Michael Pence would be made president. His focus would be on getting reelected in 2020. Before being inaugurated in 2020, Pence would have little impact on the economy. However, if he was reelected, he would have a conservative financial agenda. The focus would be less on growth and federal spending. Likely, he would focus on continued trade with China that would stimulate the economy and promote ideas that he’s promoted in the past about returning to the gold standard.
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What Happens If Trump Is Not Removed from Office?
Impeachment without removal will likely not have a negative impact on monetary or fiscal policy. Since the House of Representatives voted to have impeachment proceedings in October, 31 stocks have gained five percent. With the shadow of impeachment over him, Trump has been able to get NAFTA, a trade deal, and a deal with China. Right now, it seems like investors don’t care what Congress does.
Of course, all this is speculative. When Nixon resigned, the economy took a small downturn. However, Clinton’s impeachment came during the biggest financial rally of the 90s.
Even if a recession is not brought about by impeachment or removal of the president, there are still indicators that recession is on the horizon. Smart investors will keep their portfolio diversified and include safer bets like gold when planning for their future.