During the off-season, it can be tempting to start placing some outright winner bets on the Premier League or NFL. In fact, it can dominate discussions with friends, about who can pick the correct winner of the World Cup – rarely are the debates centered around who will win the opening group fixture. But, placing a long-term wager comes at a cost, and it rarely pays off compared to short-term bets.
The high opportunity cost of long holds
When you place a long-term bet, your stake is effectively stuck in the ether for the foreseeable. This locked-up capital becomes inaccessible, and you can begin to regret not making better use of it. The main disadvantage here is what economists call opportunity cost. It’s not only the literal time value of money that eats away at it (e.g. inflation), but that you’re forgoing other bets. If you stumble across a great value bet the week after, you may feel like you can’t make it.
When sports betting online, shorter-term wagers return capital far quicker, whether you win or lose. This liquidity allows for reinvestment if wanted, and perhaps change your tactical approach. So, by making more frequent bets, you may have more to learn from.
Why forecasting is harder
The further in the future your prediction, the harder the accuracy becomes. This is for a few reasons, but basically there is more time for things to change. Injuries, motivations, even politics and redundancies…
A lot of sport is about momentum. Manchester City were the best team in the world just over a year ago, but are now struggling to get into the top four of just their domestic league. They were dominant every year, until they weren’t. The air can be taken out of your sails quickly in sport, and so we have much better information when making wagers for this weekend, compared to four month’s time.
Flexibility and informed decisions
Shorter betting cycles ultimately offer more current information, and this is therefore more reliable. Recent performance and confirmed team line-ups are all what helps really know the situation before making a call, and these conditions are highly variable across an entire season.
Having more frequency is what creates greater adaptability. Strategies can be adjusted quickly based on recent outcomes – there’s no shame in ditching something that just isn’t working. Of course, a long-term bet cannot be ditched. Shorter cycles have more frequent feedback loops, so you have more opportunities to learn and adapt. Even though sustained success is unlikely when betting generally, more bets means a more diversified approach.
When is it okay to make long-term bets?
Long-term bets can be worthwhile if you’re expecting the odds to swing greatly. Perhaps you’re looking to sell/lay the bet once the odds change, and you’re then in a position of arbitrage. In fact, because it’s further in advance, you can get in there early before the odds adjust to become more accurate.
Ultimately, though, immobilizing your capital isn’t ideal. Getting in there early is good, but that doesn’t mean it has to be a long way off.
